It is the foreign
policy in which the goals and ambitions are prioritized according to their
importance to that particular country and it is also the foreign policy of a
country that explains that how that particular country is going to achieve
those goals and ambitions. Simply, foreign policy can be termed as a tool to
pursue and promote national goals and ambitions. These goals and ambitions are
referred as national interests. Every country of the world formulates foreign
policy to achieve and protect their national interests. The formulators of the
foreign policy keep in view not only the present scenario but also picture the
future while formulating the foreign policy. The ideology and believes of the
leadership of a country also plays a decisive role in the shaping up of the
national policy of a country as they have set their own set of priorities to
achieve by the means of their foreign policy for example some leaders consider
national economy as their top priority while some are of the view that national
security surpasses all other national interests. So the countries with the
economy as their priority make a foreign policy that garner more and more
economic benefits for their countries this include negotiating free trade
agreements, lower trade tariffs and higher export quotas for their products
while countries with defense as their priority tries to acquire more
sophisticated modern technology to strengthen their defense and negotiate
defense pacts and enter certain alliances in order to achieve balance of power.
As mentioned above the foreign policy is designed by keeping in mind present as
well as future challenges and a foreign policy can be judges as a good foreign
policy when it is able to protect a country’s national interests both in short
term as well as in the long term. In this blog we will discuss that what
should be the future course of Pakistan’s foreign policy as up till now Pakistan
has been a security state but now it is the high time to have a paradigm shift
and explore new alternatives for the protection and promotion of its national
interests.
Pakistan is a country
situated at the cross roads of South Asia, Middle East, Central Asia and China.
Pakistan came into being on 14th August 1947 under the leadership of
Quaid-e-Azam Muhammad Ali Jinnah and got freedom from Britain. Pakistan is a
federation of four provinces namely Punjab, Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa
and Sindh. Pakistan follows Parliamentary form of government with Islamabad
being its capital. Pakistan has a population of 179.2 million with a GDP of 225.1
billion Dollars
which makes Pakistan 6th largest country population wise.
The foreign policy of
Pakistan can be segregated into various phases in order to understand the
reasons behind the formulation of the foreign policy at that point of time,
historical over view is important. Following are the phases of Pakistan’s
foreign policy:
Quaid-e-Azam Muhammad
Ali Jinnah gave two guiding principles to Pakistan for the formulation of the
foreign policy. These principles were of friendliness and goodwill towards the
nations of the world. The early years of Pakistan were dominated by her
problems with India and the efforts to introduce the country to the world
community. The problems with India started shortly after Independence as
matters such as division of assets of British Indian government including
military and financial assets, communal riots, river water dispute and disputes
like forceful accession of states of Jonagarh, Hyderabad and Jammu &
Kashmir to name a few. India was not the only neighbor that was causing
problems to Pakistan. Our neighbor in the west, Afghanistan was also creating
problems as it refused to accept Durand line as a permanent border and claimed
on the entire N.W.F.P province (now Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa) and adding to this was
the only country that opposed Pakistan’s membership of United Nations. Threats
like these made Pakistan wary of its security. Following the principles of
Quaid Pakistan remained a neutral state and did not join any of the cold war
camps but the than Prime minister of Pakistan Liaquat Ali Khan visited United
States of America instead of USSR irrespective of latter’s invitation. Pakistan
was the first country that recognized Peoples Republic of China in 1950.
Pakistan gave allot of importance to its relations with the Muslim world and on
every platform Pakistan supported the cause of the Muslims worldwide and took
initiatives to unite the Muslim world but her initiatives were met with
suspicion but Pakistan was able to stuck good relations with Turkey, Saudi
Arabia and Iran.
The second phase of Pakistan’s
foreign policy saw a paradigm shift as Pakistan from a neutral state jumps in
the Western band wagon and joined various pacts involving USA as a guarantor.
These pacts were Mutual Defense Assistance pact (1954), South East Asia treaty
(1954), Central Treaty Organization (1955) and a Bilateral Agreement of
cooperation (1959). Under these pacts Pakistan received military and economic
aid from USA. USA initiated these pacts with the sole purpose of containment of
communism but for Pakistan there were two basic reasons one being the threat of
India while the second was that Pakistan was feeling isolated as the reaction
of the Muslim world cannot be termed as encouraging. So, in order to come out
of this isolation and overcome the Indian fear Pakistan entered in the Western
block. Under the defense pacts Pakistan provided USA with an airbase near
Peshawar and this base was used to conduct espionage flight over Moscow, Russia
and one such plane was hunt down by the Russians which gave birth to famous U2 incident
and added another security threat to the existence of Pakistan as USSR started
to support both Afghanistan and India overtly against Pakistan. This can be
termed as a cost that Pakistan had to incur after joining the western block
other than this the Muslim world also further distance themselves from Pakistan
after joining the American led block as they were extremely angry with USA over
its support for Israel. During this Pakistan still enjoyed very normal and
cordial relationship with China and Iran. The
leadership in Pakistan was also not that popular and due to the weak political
leadership opportunities for the military and civil bureaucracy aroused and
they availed it also. Ayub Khan imposed martial law in Pakistan in 1958 and
after that up till now the military has a very powerful say in the matters of
foreign relations and foreign policy. One important reason for this dominance
is that Pakistan is a national security state.
In the early 60’s with
change in leadership at white house the American policy towards South Asia also
changed as they started to project India to counter weight China. For Pakistani
leadership all this was a matter of great concern as Pakistan has made most of
the world its enemy after joining the western camp so the Pakistani policy
makers started to explore options other than alignment with American led block.
America further undermined Pakistan in 1962 when after the Indo-Sino border
skirmish USA and its allies extensively provided diplomatic as well as military
aid to India and this betrayal continued in the war of 1965. Pakistan after
getting disappointed from USA successfully improved its relations with USSR,
the than President of Pakistan Ayub Khan made visits to the communist country
and Pakistan-USSR relations started to improve as both countries started to explore new avenues of trade and
financial cooperation. USSR also hosted Pakistan and India after 1965 war for
the peace agreement commonly known as “Tashkent pact”. Pakistan’s relations
with China were upwardly mobile and becoming stronger with each passing day.
Pakistan and China also successfully demarcated their boundaries. All these
steps made Pakistan not fully but a bit free from American influence. This
association was not single dimensioned as it included military, financial,
social and cultural cooperation.USA discouraged Pakistan from strengthening its
ties with China and also withdrawn its major chunk of aid to Pakistan and also
imposed military sanctions on both India and Pakistan which damaged Pakistan
more than India as until than Pakistan heavily relied on American weaponry
though this sanction was lifted just before the 71 war with India but was again
imposed once the war started. On the contrary Pakistan helped USA in
establishing their relations with China. This phase saw Pakistan fighting two
wars with India one in 1965 and the other in 1971. The war of 1971 was more
damaging for Pakistan as it ended on dismemberment of Pakistan; USSR sided with
India and USA apparently remained neutral. This moment can be termed as the
worst in the history of Pakistan’s foreign policy as well as in the national
history of Pakistan. Pakistan was alone and isolated as none of its friend came
up for her help even China provided diplomatic support to Pakistan but nothing
more.
In this phase the
foreign policy of Pakistan had a complete makeover. After the debacle of East
Pakistan, it was decided to adopt the policy of bilateralism and non alignment.
Pakistan quitted from Common wealth, CENTO and SEATO and became a member of Non
Aligned movement. Pakistani policy makers started to explore new avenues and
stared to form relationships with those countries which they earlier neglected.
Pakistan worked on establishing economic, trade and diplomatic relations with
these countries. Pakistan advocated the problems of the developing countries. At
the same time Pakistan maintained good relations with the world powers.
Zulfikar Ali Bhutto was the architect of Pakistani foreign policy and he used
his charismatic personality to diffuse pre war animosity with USSR and USA.
Pakistan continued to maintain healthy, friendly and cordial relationship with
China and cooperation of both countries continued to grow. Pakistan’s
relationship with India also started to become normalize as both countries
signed a peace deal in 1972 with India conducting nuclear test in 1974 an
imbalance was created in the regional power structure. This also stimulated
Pakistan to follow its own nuclear dream. This dream saw severe resistance from
USA as she used all possible means to stop Pakistan from becoming nuclear. This
phase is significant in this regard as Pakistan started to enjoy good relations
with the Muslim world especially the Middle East. These oil rich nations
provided Pakistan with economic aid but also provided employment opportunities
to Pakistani human power.
The end of this phase saw two big historical events as an Islamic revolution in
Iran over threw the American favoring Shah while USSR invaded Afghanistan other
than these international events an important event took place domestically as
Martial law was imposed in Pakistan in 1977.
As mentioned above the
year 1979 saw two big events which changed the course of human history
especially USSR’s invasion of Afghanistan. Pakistan upon realizing the threat
started to support Afghan Mujahedeen that were fighting against the occupying
Communist forces. Pakistan not only hosted more than 3 million Afghan refugees
but also provided military assistance to the Mujahedeen that were fighting
against the USSR. Pakistan also successfully garnered the support for the
Mujahedeen. USA also started to support Pakistan on the issue of Afghanistan
and provided Pakistan with financial and military aid so that Pakistan can
support the Mujahedeen as well as bear the burden of the refugees and the
Americans for the time being also ignored Pakistan’s nuclear program but all
this changed once USSR got defeated in Afghanistan and USA left Pakistan alone to bear the
financial burden caused by Afghan refugees and also imposed certain sanctions
on Pakistan which blocked the way for Pakistan to get financial and military
aid from USA. Pakistan was deceived again by her friend. Muslim countries and
China fully supported Pakistan’s Afghan policy. The relations with India in
this phase was a mix bag as there was not 100% animosity and at the same time
it can be said that the relationship was not 100% friendly.
This phase was very
hard for Pakistan as she was facing variety of problems primarily because of
the Afghan situation as after the eruption of civil war in the country Pakistan
had to continue hosting the huge amount of Afghan refugees on its own and after
the withdrawal of American support Pakistan’s fragile economy has lacked the
capacity to overcome this burden. Other than this, insurgency in Kashmir and
its effect on India-Pakistan relations and nuclear tests dominated this phase.
Pakistan patronizes and supported Taliban; a fraction of Mujahedeen to lead
Afghanistan and they eventually with the help of Pakistan seized power. Their
rule in Afghanistan can be termed as best in the history of Pak-Afghan
relations as western border was literally secure for the first time in history
as for the first time a pro Pakistan government seized power in Afghanistan. Issues
like Kargil war and cross border terrorism dominated Pakistan’s relationship
with India but the event that changed the outlook of the whole relationship
dimension of both the countries was the nuclear tests of May, 1998. This once
for all diminished Pakistan’s inferiority to India in the field of defense. This
phase ended on another unfortunate event as infamous 9/11 attacks took place in
America and changed the dimension of the world politics. In
Pakistan this era was of political instability as the political leadership of
the country never get time to implement their vision of foreign policy as
repeatedly the democratic governments were disposed off and eventually a coup d’état in 1999 summed
up this phase for Pakistan but the military prior to the coup already dominated
the foreign policy of the country..
This is the current
ongoing phase of Pakistan’s foreign policy. Pakistan after the 9/11 attacks on
USA supported her on her war on terror. USA attacked Afghanistan where Osama
bin Laden was hiding who was the man behind the tragic 9/11 attacks. Pakistan
once again joined the American led coalition with the bitter memory of past
alliances though Pakistan has not supported USA on its war on Iraq. Pakistan had
paid heavy toll for this as Afghan war has spilled over to Pakistan and
Pakistan is facing a civil war like situation. This entire situation is taking
a heavy toll on the economic as well as social life of Pakistanis. There is no
rule of law in the country and banned extremist religious outfits are
challenging the writ of the government. Osama bin Laden was in Pakistan and
then killed in an operation conducted by American forces on Pakistani soil. The
Americans are accusing Pakistan of double game at the same time the religious
forces in Pakistan are criticizing the government for supporting USA. The relationship
with India is also at its all time low after the infamous Mumbai attacks. The
sitting Afghan government is anti Pakistan and pro India. Pakistan is
considered as a country that does nuclear proliferation and export terrorism.
Pakistan’s national image is distorted beyond belief. The country is going
through severs economic crunch and resultantly the debt is also increasing.
Separatist movement is being run in the Balochistan province with the help of
foreign forces. Muslim world once strong base of support is divided on
sectarian lines. Under all this negativity USA is withdrawing from Afghanistan
by the end of 2014.The foreign policy of Pakistan seems to be clueless and
without any direction and Pakistan too is going through a transition phase of
some sought as she is gradually becoming democratic after a long phase of
martial law but leadership at hand has not shown maturity and still the
military influences the foreign policy of the country.
As discussed above
Pakistan has experimented with all sorts of foreign policies; from alignment to
non alignment, from neutrality to bilateralism and from security searching
country to economic gains garnering but truly speaking security has always been
Pakistan’s top national interests and it has made us to do stuff that did not
fulfilled the purpose for Pakistan. In today’s world the bifurcation of the
cold war does not exists but still there is a segregation in the world basing
my argument on the American slogan of war on terror which said that “are you
with us or against us?” this explains that in today’s world a country has only
two options one to be with USA and second to be against USA. For Pakistan we
have experienced both as we are once labeled as non NATO ally and then labeled
as a country that double crosses or plays double games with the Americans. From
being the most allied ally Pakistan has become the most blamed ally. Pakistan
sees it otherwise as they consider themselves as the most betrayed ally. Now,
USA is preparing a withdrawal from Afghanistan and once again the alliance
between these two countries is about to end but this gives Pakistan an
opportunity to have a fresh start and formulate a foreign policy that suits her
and her national interests now as it is important to mention here that allying
with USA and the world on the war on terror was in the national interests of
Pakistan. Before talking of future foreign policy it will be better to conduct
a SWOT Analysis of Pakistan.
SWOT stands for
strength, weakness, opportunity and threats. SWOT Analysis is usually conducted
at the organizational level to determine internal strengths and weaknesses of
the organization and external opportunities and threats that the organization
is going to face. Pakistan has also some internal strengths and weaknesses and
external opportunities and threats.
1. Young Population:
Pakistan
is a country with a population of over 180 million which makes it the 6th
largest country in the world population wise and out of those 68% people are
below the age of 30 years and
such a young population can be very decisive and important to future
development of Pakistan.
2. Geographical setting: Pakistan enjoys quite
a significant geographical settings as Pakistan sits on the cross roads of
South Asia, Middle East, Central Asia and China.
3. Large and diverse resources: Pakistan is blessed
with natural endowment and fortunately or unfortunately most of it is still
unexplored. Some common examples are Thar Coal and Reko diq gold and copper
project.
4. Untapped potential for trade:
unlike
other economies of the region Pakistan’s potential for trade is still untapped
and there are still many avenues that can be explored and with such a large
population Pakistan can be an attractive destination for the international
trade.
1. Economic problems:
Pakistan
now a day is going through a severe financial crisis. Law and order situation
has taken its toll on Pakistan and has negatively affected foreign direct
investment in to Pakistan.
2. Law and order situation: The law and order
situation in Pakistan is grave and multi facial as on one side Pakistan is
fighting against extremist TTP and on the other hand is fighting against the
separatists in Balochistan.
3. Poverty: Due to all the bloodshed Pakistan is
going through severe economic crisis this all has given rise to poverty in
Pakistan as 22.3% population lives
below poverty line and this is causing other problems such as illiteracy and
tilting towards extremism.
4. Bad governance:
One
of the biggest weaknesses that Pakistan is facing is bad governance. The government
has not been able to perform its role effectively and this inefficiency is
creating problems in both domestic and international level. Pakistan
administration has failed to collect taxes and curb corruption which has caused
further deterioration in the social and political structure of Pakistan.
5. Illiteracy: As mentioned above Pakistan has a large
population but nearly half of it is illiterate. This makes them useless of some
sought as they have no competitive edge and are not skilled so, they become
unable to compete at the international level.
6. Polio virus:
Recently
WHO declared Pakistani city of Peshawar as an epicenter of Polio virus as the extremist
do not let the children have the vaccination. This is a major concern for
Pakistan as this will affect her future generation as well as international
reputation.
7. Energy crisis:
Pakistan
is facing a severe energy shortage which is making an adverse effect on the
industrial production directly and the exports indirectly also the energy
produced by Pakistan is very expensive which makes the production process more costly
for the producers.
8. Sectarian violence: There
is a clear sectarian divide in Pakistan as Shias and Sunnis are at loggerheads
with each other and the most unfortunate part is that now it has become violent
in nature and both sides have stated to use terrorism against each other.
9. Large population: Pakistan
has a very large population and a the government due to its financial
restraints is not able to completely take care of this population and not even
trying to control it.
1.
Human resource:
Pakistan
has a large population and many countries of the world especially Middle
Eastern and Far Eastern countries are in need of human labor. Pakistan should
avail this opportunity and export its human resource to these countries and
also explore other markets where its human resource can be made useful and
should also work to equip its human product with various skills that are in
demand.
2.
Energy corridor: As mentioned above
Pakistan sits on a very important geographical location as it is on the cross
roads of Central Asia, China, Middle East and South Asia. Pakistan can serve as
a energy corridor for the Central Asian states and at the same time can fulfill
its own energy requirements.
3.
Trade corridor: Pakistan can also
serve as a trade corridor for big producers such as India and China due to its
important geographical positioning.
4.
Consumer market: Pakistan with such a
large population can serve as the consumer market for the international
manufacturers. Pakistan should work on gaining their attention and made them to
invest in the country by formulating user friendly policies.
5.
GSP+: It is a preferential incentive that is being
given to Pakistan by EU under this act Pakistan will be given duty free access
to the European markets. Pakistan should make most of it and use this
opportunity to stabilize as well as develop the local industry.
6.
Tourism: Pakistan can become a
very important tourist destination of the world as Pakistan is blessed from
high mountains to lush green fields, from remains of old civilizations to
classical architecture. Pakistan is home to everything that a tourist can dream
of. Other than the normal tourism Pakistan can also boost the religious tourism
as Pakistan is home to the religious destinations of Hindus, Sikhs and Buddhists.
1.
International
Image: Pakistan is
considered to be a terrorist country that exports terrorism and extremism to
the world.
2.
Nuclear
proliferation: Pakistan is
charged with the nuclear proliferation though now the nuclear system is very
much secure but still now and then concerns are shown towards the security of
the nuclear arsenal.
3.
Cross
border terrorism:
Afghanistan and India both are Pakistan’s two immediate neighbors blame
Pakistan for providing safe sanctuaries to the terrorists that carry out
attacks on the soils of these two countries.
4.
Piling
debt:
Pakistan has piled a large amount of international debt as its own economy is
hitting rock bottom and the war on terror is also taking its toll on Pakistan’s
economy.
6.
Human
Rights violations:
Pakistan is charged with human rights violation as the matter of “missing
persons” has gained international attention.
7. Failed state:
The
Pakistani image in the world is becoming more of a failed state as from exporting terrorism to polio
virus Pakistan is blamed for all.
Before presenting any
of the recommendations Pakistan’s top most priority should be to overcome its
domestic issues as they are hindering Pakistan’s growth as well as the
formulation process of the foreign policy. Pakistan should work on formulating
policies that address its domestic problems as mentioned above these problems
are of different varieties but the most important thing that is required the
will of the leadership to solve all these problems and for this they have to
unite the people on one platform. The menace of extremism cannot be eradicated
overnight but can be curtailed Pakistani leadership should work curbing this
menace in Pakistan. After this the financial problems of Pakistan other than
the international financial crisis, the bad governance in Pakistan is also a
reason behind the financial crunch of the country. The policy makers should
explore both domestic and foreign sources to overcome this problem. Once the
government overcomes the financial restraints the government should allocate
all its energies in the general welfare of the people of Pakistan. It is also
the duty of the people to stand by the side of their government and act in the
best interest of their country. It can be said that no government can achieve
success without the support of its people so it is in the mutual interest of
the government and people and in the greater interest of Pakistan that these
two cooperate with each other. Now it is the high time that the government
should hold the reigns of the foreign policy from the military and the role of
the military in foreign policy making should be restricted to mere consultative
one. Following are the recommendations for the future course of Pakistan’s
foreign policy:
1.
Pakistan should now concentrate more on
its economic upheaval than the security concerns.
2.
Pakistan should try to promote peaceful
relations with its neighbors especially India and Afghanistan.
3.
Pakistan should continue its support of
Afghan led peace process but at the same time should work on improving its
image in the neighboring country this can be done by giving scholarships to
young Afghan students in Pakistani educational institutions.
4.
Pakistan should persist to its stance of
peaceful coexistence with India and also try to increase people to people
contact.
5.
A mechanism should be evolved to solve
the contentious issues with India and for this purpose back channel diplomacy
should be used and in the mean time measures should be taken to increase the
confidence of India on our willingness but all this should be done without
undermining Pakistan’s national prestige especially in the issues of
distribution of waters.
6.
Pakistan should continue to maintain
good and healthy relations with the Muslim world and support their just causes
that do not contradict with her own national interest.
7.
Pakistan should not support any move at
international and regional level that is against the national interest of
Pakistan and should bear international pressure in this regard.
8.
Pakistan should work on improving its
image in the international world. This can be done by organizing festivals that
showcase Pakistan’s rich culture and promoting tourism in the country by
attracting international tourists.
9.
Pakistan should concentrate on
developing relations with developing countries especially in Africa as this
continent is still untapped and is tipped off that the next century is of
Africa. Countries like Ethiopia and Nigeria are one of the fastest growing
economies of the world.
10.
Pakistan should negotiate free trade
agreements with more and more countries in order to get trade benefits and
easier access to the markets of those countries.
11.
Pakistan should arrange for providing
human resource to the countries that are in need of it. This will bring
economic independence at the local level and will eventually help the
government too in the shape of foreign remittance.
12.
Pakistan should also use its foreign
policy to isolate the separatist elements by eradicating their foreign handlers
and Pakistan should use all the platforms that are required in this regard.
13.
Pakistan is a nuclear state and it
should work on getting a nuclear deal similar to Indo-American strategic deal
though Pakistan have a nuclear deal with China but Pakistan should aim to
secure such deals with other countries too.
14.
Pakistan should campaign to get the
membership of the nuclear supplier group as after becoming the member of the
group Pakistan will be able to provide nuclear energy to other countries that
will help Pakistan to improve its financial position and membership of this
group will also add to the positive image of Pakistan.
15.
Pakistan
should also rally support of getting membership of regional organizations
specially Shanghai Cooperation Council.
16.
Pakistan should also work to form
partnerships with the regional organizations such as ASEAN and EU.
17.
Pakistan should continue to play its
positive role in the peace keeping forces of the United Nations. This shows
Pakistan as a responsible nation of the world and also paints its positive
image in the world.
18.
Pakistan should chalk out the means to
obtain cheaper energy from its periphery and then try to acquire it in order to
fulfill its domestic and industrial requirements.
19.
The embassies and the consulates should
be used to promote Pakistani trade as exhibitions should be conducted to show
case Pakistani products.
20.
The foreign policy should also aim on
garnering support for the causes that are dear to Pakistan. It should target to
use international pressure in its favor.
21.
The foreign policy should propagate
Pakistan’s investor friendly policies so that it attracts investor to invest in
Pakistan. Special trade envoys should be nominated from the local business
fraternity in order to create more formal relations with the business community
of that particular country.
22.
It should be made sure that more and
more grants are being allocated by the international agencies for poverty
elimination in Pakistan.
23.
The foreign policy should aim at
decreasing hostility with in relations with all the countries of the world.
24.
The foreign policy should help Pakistan
to get the technology transfer from other countries so that Pakistan also
matches with the pace of the world.
25.
The foreign policy should aim at
securing military supplies for the armed forces of Pakistan.
26.
The foreign policy should highlight
Pakistan’s sacrifices for the world peaces at the same time accumulate support
for Pakistan’s war against terror.
27.
The most important goal of the foreign
policy of Pakistan should be to propagate Pakistan’s true face and should aim
at diminishing the negativity that surrounds Pakistan.